Why is Black Lotus price separating from the rest of P9?

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Alphafoil
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Why is Black Lotus price separating from the rest of P9?

Post by Alphafoil » Sat May 03, 2014 9:48 pm

Some years ago I remember a Black Lotus costing about 2.5 times a "bad" Mox. Now, it's worth like 4 Moxes. The ratio is even higher in the case of high graded cards.

In Vintage, a format that isn't played much nowadays (without proxies I mean), Black Lotus is played about as often as the rest of Moxes, and a bit more than Time Walk and Ancestral Recall (http://www.mtgtop8.com/topcards?f=VI&meta=71). For those that want a powered cube, they also want the same amount of Black Lotus and Mox Pearl.

What is causing this expanding difference in prices? If Black Lotus is so much more expensive than a Mox Emerald, it's because there's indeed more demand (as supply is the same). But, if demand from players (Vintage and Cube) is the same for both cards, what's going on?

I have seen something similar in sports cards prices, where some cards concentrate the majority of the set value, and where the most priced card is worth much more than the second one, while all of them are as "useless". For example, 1986 Fleer Basketball (Michael Jordan Rookie) or 1952 Topps Baseball (Mickey Mantle).

Black Lotus always had a premium over Moxes, for being the most iconic Magic card. But why has that premium increased? Do you think that "ratio" will increase even more in the future, as "playability" becomes more irrelevant (both because Vintage is played even less and because people are less willing to play with expensive cards)?

random
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Post by random » Sun May 04, 2014 12:09 am

My guess is most people want all the iconic cards but cannot afford to buy them so they go after a -one of- which happens to be the Lotus.

I just re-bought the P9 late last year and it was crazy $$ for a graded set. I can't imagine too many people can get on board these days and just buy/re-buy everything at this point with the price increases. Mint cards like Juzam and other stuff really hard to find too although I doubt they're played anymore. Lotus is the consensus card to get though, imo, if you can only get 1 great card.

Royal Ass.
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Post by Royal Ass. » Sun May 04, 2014 3:26 am

Lotus is the most iconic card. It's less about playability now and more about what the car represents to the history/culture of the game. Lotus is THE magic card.
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random
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Post by random » Sun May 04, 2014 6:41 am

Sorry for the double post above.

Other considerations:

People selling collections might hang onto the card as it has the most potential to grow in value. The ultimate investment card.

The Yahoo News article on the one that went for $$$ at auction gave the card even more perceived value/exposure.

People who pay more $$ for an item are usually less inclined to sell (unless that's their intent).

Alphafoil
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Post by Alphafoil » Sun May 04, 2014 10:37 am

Royal Ass. wrote:Lotus is the most iconic card. It's less about playability now and more about what the car represents to the history/culture of the game. Lotus is THE magic card.
From that point of view, we could expect Black Lotus/Mox Pearl ratio to keep increasing, as people will keep focusing more in getting a Black Lotus, instead of completing the P9. Both because they also don't need the P9, as they won't play with it, and because the rest of cards are less iconic.

Alphafoil
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Post by Alphafoil » Sun May 04, 2014 10:40 am

random wrote:My guess is most people want all the iconic cards but cannot afford to buy them so they go after a -one of- which happens to be the Lotus.

I just re-bought the P9 late last year and it was crazy $$ for a graded set. I can't imagine too many people can get on board these days and just buy/re-buy everything at this point with the price increases. Mint cards like Juzam and other stuff really hard to find too although I doubt they're played anymore. Lotus is the consensus card to get though, imo, if you can only get 1 great card.
Well, if some people are willing to buy another P9 card if they can't afford Black Lotus, that ratio should stabilize. But if people just want Black Lotus first, and then the rest of the P9 only if they can afford it, then Black Lotus/Mox Pearl will keep going up.

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