StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sale

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by fvzappa » Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:16 pm

For a fairly comprehensive look at the differences, please go here:

http://fvzappa.photosite.com/

I have included scans of the front, side, & bottom of an Alt. 4th & regular 4th edition starters on this site. Please let me know what you think & if there are any additional photos/ scans I could make.

Enjoy.

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by dry cereal » Sun Oct 17, 2004 5:09 am

but I thought not lighting up was good.
I can't believe I ate the whole thing

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by BenBleiweiss » Sun Oct 17, 2004 5:56 am

Ralph:  We’ve already done away with the summer label on alternate 4th – we’re sorry for any confusion that may have caused.  We had thought that it was a common practice to refer to it as both summer and alternate 4th, due to posts on both the Rarities message board and in E-bay auctions, but we understand now that this is not the case.  

I also believe that the prices we have the cards for sale at now are lower than the cards should be selling for, given their rarity.  I do not believe that we, or anyone else, would be able to restock their Alternate 4th Edition inventory to any large degree once these cards are sold, because I truly do not believe any supply exists beyond these initial ten surviving cases.  Here’s some numbers:

I’ve been able to account for the following:
Approximately 10 unopened boxes of product (this over multiple sources)= 6,000 cards (Tap4Black: Dave from Sports Cards & More claimed that ten cases survived.  He did not claim to have ten cases, as you stated.  The number he had, based on phone conversations with him, was less than a case worth of product total.  Saying that he had all ten cases is just bad information.)
10 complete sets (Most of these sets are not fully complete, but I’m rounding up for arguments sake) = 3,780 cards
Loose singles, not in sets, between board members and various dealers across the country (this does not include Dan Bock, who had not disclosed his inventory to me): Approximately 12,500 cards.
Total: 22, 580 cards

If you recall, these are our estimated numbers:
Estimated number of each Alternate "Summer" Fourth Edition rare in existence: 25  
* Estimated number of each Alternate "Summer" Fourth Edition uncommon in existence: 75  
 
* Estimated number of each Alternate "Summer" Fourth Edition common in existence: 215  
 
* Estimated number of each Alternate "Summer" Fourth Edition basic land in existence: 1,450  
 
10 Cases of Tournament Decks = 100 Tournament Boxes (back then, it was 10 boxes per case) = 1000 tournament decks.  
 
1000 tournament decks equals:
3000 total rares
9000 total uncommons
26000 total commons
22000 total basic lands

60,000 total Alternate 4th Edition cards that survived destruction

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by BenBleiweiss » Sun Oct 17, 2004 5:56 am

Let’s assume for a minute that Dan Bock has 7,420 Alternate 4th Edition cards squirreled away (and I believe his collection is much smaller than that) – then after two years of alternate 4th Edition being made public, we would be able to account for 30,000 cards total.  This includes every major dealer in the country keeping their eyes open for these cards, multiple rarity members in the Midwest soaking the cards up from local collections, and people stumbling across surviving unopened product in stores and from distributors.  Think about this for a second:  If everyone has been scouring collections for two years now and have only come up with approximately 30,000 Alternate 4th Cards, wouldn’t that indicate a very low print run?  It would account for half the cards that we posit are still in existence.  How many more Alternate 4th Cards are out there?  Let’s go with my figures for a moment:  we can account for 30,000 cards.  We cannot account for another 30,000.  Beyond that, are there any more Alternate 4th Cards out there?  Think about the number 30,000.  Given how long it’s taken with people looking to find approximately the first half of the surviving print run, do you think that there are hundreds of thousands of other surviving Alternate 4th Cards beyond what we believe is the surviving print run?  If so, where are these cards?  We can’t account for half the cards that we think survived the initial destruction of the set following the WOTC/US Playing Card lawsuit.  Why would there be any reason to believe there are more than we claim?

Regarding the comments about pricing:  As I stated above, I believe our prices are low given what I believe is the print run of Alternate 4th Edition.  The reason I priced these cards at the level I did is because I truly expected this sort of resistance to a sudden price jump on Alternate 4th Cards.  I’ve been acquiring Alternate 4th Cards from a few sources over the past year and a half, and people have not valued these cards at much beyond the regular prices of 4th Edition cards.  I’ve put a lot of effort into trying to figure out the print run (both initial and surviving), into tracking the cards down, and into placing value into these cards.  Whenever I offered “Xâ€￾ for Alternate 4th Cards to those who traded me Alternate 4th Cards, they either said yes or no.  I only had one person come back with a counteroffer, and nobody had put any concrete value on Alternate 4th Cards.  I do not understand that opposition to the prices I have set on the cards – in fact, I applaud Van8888’s post, which I believe to be very sensible.  We did jump the market on Alternate 4th Cards drastically.  If the demand does not match our prices, then the market will adjust.  

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by BenBleiweiss » Sun Oct 17, 2004 5:56 am

However, I disagree with his assessment that there was no demand on these cards.  I have had multiple (in the dozens) of people asking about our supply of Alternate 4th Edition cards over the past few months, especially once I began re-stepping up my efforts to acquire these cards.  People knew I was building a supply for these cards, and they showed their interest in buying or trading for these cards from me.  In addition, literally everyone who had Alternate 4th Cards, for the past few months, has frozen their collections and gone into buying mode as a result of the Alternate 4th Birds going from $37 to $251 within a couple of weeks on E-Bay.  People weren’t sure if this was a fluke (a card mistaken for Summer Magic) or if there was a growing demand for Alternate 4th Cards.  I believe it to be the latter – we’ve already sold multiple Alternate 4th Edition cards since yesterday.  

As a note to Hammr7 – I do not believe there was any pilot release.  I believe that these cards were fully manufactured at the US Playing Card plant in Ohio and never left the company until they were slated for destruction pending the WOTC/USPC lawsuit.  The cards, all packed in Starter (Tournament) decks were then destroyed.  The ten case figure comes from the product that was saved somewhere along the lines of this process.  I also do not believe that we are trying to take any advantage of a vacuum in knowledge – this is why I’m having a completely open discussion here on Magic Rarities to determine whether my figures are correct or incorrect.  The longer that this discussion has gone on, the more I am convinced that my figure (60,000 surviving cards) is correct – no huge stockpiles of these cards has been found, we can only account for half the print run, I have people who have given me solid numbers (10 surviving cases), and there has been absolutely nothing to refute these numbers (or to even cast doubt on them) beyond “well, I think they’re a lot more common than thatâ€￾.   I’m putting forth concrete numbers to support my claims.  I would be more than happy if anyone could put forth concrete numbers to contradict my numbers, which would be entirely within the realm of possibility if they could account for anything beyond the 30,000 Alternate 4th Cards that nobody has their hands on.

Ralph:  When I get into work on Monday, I will happily scan you all six sides of an Alternate 4th Starter – I can’t do that from home!

Again, I want to thank everyone for the great discussion on this topic.  I completely understand the backlash that I’ve gotten on the Alternate 4th Edition subject, because I’ve basically said “everything you thought about Alternate 4th Edition is wrong and they are rarer and worth much more than everyone assumed.â€￾  I would never, ever have done this unless I believe my information and statistics were correct.  I do believe that only 10 Cases of Alternate 4th Edition survived destruction.  I look forward to a continuing discussion on this subject over the coming weeks on this board!

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by Ralph Herold » Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:16 am

BenBleiweiss: Thank you for your offer to provide images, but this request has become obsolete in the meanwhile. Let us see what others may argue against your theory. I have notified Dan Bock about this discussion. Maybe he feels compelled to join.

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by BenBleiweiss » Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:58 am

BenBleiweiss: Thank you for your offer to provide images, but this request has become obsolete in the meanwhile. Let us see what others may argue against your theory. I have notified Dan Bock about this discussion. Maybe he feels compelled to join.
It would be wonderful if Dan could throw in his thoughts here!  In my discussion with him (in attempts to buy all of his Alternate 4th Cards), I have been unable to get a firm number on his remaining stock of Alternate 4th.  The only discussions we've had have been a little bit over the price paid for these cards, and I will leave it up to him as to whether he would like to share this information.

- Ben

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by rick21n » Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:24 am

Just a couple brief notes to add into the mix.  I looked through my 4th Ed collection the first time this topic came to light a few months ago.  I have approximately 3000 4th Ed Cards and mixed in with them was 50 Alt-4th Cards.  I am located in Vermont.  Before this thread started with Star City's prices I didn't think they were worth much more then normal 4th ed..  

I think the largest issue in finding these cards is not location but education of the playing public.  Few people ever pay enough attention to the cards they are playing with to notice minor details.  Even when some of my friends were taught and shown the differences they didn't seem to care or check.

Anyway just my .02

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by hammr7 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:58 am

Ben,

The concerns I have with your assumptions are numerous.  Some are logical, Based upon the assumptions you use in determining that you have found half of what is avalable.  The others are procedural, based upon the ways printing companies run contract orders.  

Alternate 4th is not the easiest product to spot.  Unless you know it exists, have a blacklight (and the right kind at that), and make a consious effort, they won't be found.  In this regard they are totally different from foil or alpha cards, and harder by a lot than edgar.  I know quite a few dealers and collectors who are clueless about the set, or could care less about it.  The awareness and desire of this forum is much different than the overall magic community.

Furthermore, 4th edition was a dog of a set (relatively speaking), so prices are not motivating sales of the source material.  Most original purchasers probably don't have the desire to pursue sales, or receive enough compensation to conclude a transaction.  In a nutshell, I would find it hard to believe that half (or more) of the 4th edition cards purchased in the "affected" area have been scanned by knowledgable collectors and dealers.  I have heard that the total print run of 4th was over 500,000,000 cards.  Perhaps as many as 50,000,000 were sold in the "affected" area.  At one card per second it takes approximately 300 hours to search 1,000,000 cards, and the odds say that you will scan many cards 5 or 10 times before getting through even 10% of the cards of an area.  If only 10% have been scanned (at a cumulative scan time of over 2000 hours), then your numbers are off by a factor of 5.

The relative value of rares (and therefor of sets) is based on their numbers.  Your assumption is that all cards came out in tournament decks.  Somehow, in the cards I have gotten from collections (in out of the way New Jersey), I've gotten more rares than commons.  From a statistical perspective, given the total number of 4th edition cards I have received (and their more normal ratio of rares to commons), this doesn't make sense unless either I am the luckiest person in the world (not a chance if you knew me), or if other rares (pehaps from all those other rare sheets that must have been made) somehow made it to market on their own.  

And the reason that extra rare sheets would have been around has to do with the way large printing companies work.  As I stated earlier, I believe these cards were a pilot run.  There are too many for an initial sample (where only two or three sheets of each rarity would be run).  Those samples would need Wizards approval so that a scale-up run could occur, and Wizards would have been on the hook for the cost.  With multicolor sheets of this size each print run would have to be many more sheets than 25.  A typical minimum  would more likely be at least 100, and minimums as high as 400 or 500 are more likely.  The reason is a simple one - when you start multicolor registered print jobs on large equipment (the type USPCC has) it might take 20 or 30 sheets just to get everything perfect, and some additional time while samples are checked.  You usually run while such checks are made, becasue every startup takes a while to reach a production equilibrium, and you have to overproduce in case some downstream process (such as trimming) produces scrap.

A question related to your claims would be why Wizards authorized and payed for a scaled-up run (after initial sample approval) that included retail packaging, and then never released any of the cards.  And if this was the case, why would Wizards not take ownership of cards that were their copyrighted materials.  Has anyone ever gotten concrete information from Wizards or USPCC about these issues?  
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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by BenBleiweiss » Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:37 am

Alternate 4th is not the easiest product to spot.  Unless you know it exists, have a blacklight (and the right kind at that), and make a consious effort, they won't be found.
This is simply false.  Anyone who knows to look for Alternate 4th Cards can spot them easily with the naked eye.  At this point, I can skim a stack of Magic cards and be able to spot Alternate 4th Cards both from the front and the back, without any tools other than my naked eye.  Others who are familiar with these cards can do the same.  Furthermore, Alternate 4th Edition feel different from other Magic cards because of their UV coating – I’ve been able to distinguish them while skimming stacks of cards simply because they glide very, very easily off of other cards.  I have never used a UV light to spot these cards – the colors are much brighter than regular fourth edition cards on their fronts, and their hues are much darker and more pronounced on their backs.  
Somehow, in the cards I have gotten from collections (in out of the way New Jersey), I've gotten more rares than commons.  From a statistical perspective, given the total number of 4th edition cards I have received (and their more normal ratio of rares to commons), this doesn't make sense unless either I am the luckiest person in the world (not a chance if you knew me), or if other rares (pehaps from all those other rare sheets that must have been made) somehow made it to market on their own.
We have significantly more commons and lands than uncommons and rares.  I'd honestly say that you've either gotten lucky, or that the collections you got these cards in did not include those people's commons/uncommons.  Have you kept track of this?  I'm curious, because as I said earlier in this thread, the majority of our cards have all come from the same collection(s) and very rarely have we come across just one or two Alternate 4th Edition cards on their own.

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by BenBleiweiss » Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:38 am

A question related to your claims would be why Wizards authorized and payed for a scaled-up run (after initial sample approval) that included retail packaging, and then never released any of the cards.  And if this was the case, why would Wizards not take ownership of cards that were their copyrighted materials.  Has anyone ever gotten concrete information from Wizards or USPCC about these issues?  
Yes, there has been concrete information from Wizards regarding the Alternate 4th Print Run!  
From Dan Bock’s original Alternate 4th Announcement (and please note that Dan also confirms that these cards are easily spottable with the naked eye once you know what they look like):
http://www.mtgnews.com/F/Topic/10784559 ... intin.html
OFFICIAL PRESS RELEASE - Brand Manager of WotC

"Thanks for the report of what appeared unusual Magic: The Gathering cards that have leaked into the market. Wizards had a relationship with a vendor to produce Magic cards. Unfortunately, the relationship ended in a dispute and no Magic cards produced by them were ever intentionally distributed. A claim was filed with the American Arbitration Association and the parties entered into a confidential settlement. Wizards made every effort to destroy all cards in its possession and we believe that the vendor did likewise."
(Dan Bock) 3) They are immediately recognizable under UV light. I have been working on putting a set together for about 3 years, picking up the cards usually one at a time from people's binders or a couple at a time from a dealer's back-stock of 4th Edition. If you aren't looking for it, you can mistake these for regular 4th edition, but having worked with them for a while, I can easily tell from pretty far away the difference.
This official statement from WOTC indicates that these cards were never available for sale, and were destroyed pre-distribution.  Since Dan got this information straight from WOTC, I believe it to be true.  He would have to answer who the WOTC Brand Manger was at the time he spoke with WOTC regarding Alternate 4th.  On a related note, I don’t know how to track down the original settlement papers (legal papers) between WOTC and USPCC, or if these papers would even be available to the public – if anyone knows about corporate law and how I could try to obtain the paperwork regarding the settlement between these two companies, please let me know and I will go out of my way to get this information and post it here!

I have a figure from a reliable source regarding the total (not surviving) print run of Alternate 4th Edition.  However, this is a figure I have not been able to independently verify as of yet.  This number would be the total, absolute print run pre-destruction of Alternate 4th.  I will definitely be posting this number within the next week – I just want to try to verify the number with a second source before I throw out this number.  The number I have been told (of the printed, not the surviving) Alt. 4th would indicate a large-scale production.  It would also indicate the total possible print run of the set, although it has been verified that a vast, vast majority of that print run was destroyed as a result of the court settlement between WOTC & the USPCC.  

To Rick21N:  In a 4th Edition Starter (both regular and alternate), there are 3 rares, 9 Uncommons, 26 Commons and 22 basic lands.  Could you post here the correspondence of rarity to the 50 cards you have?  I believe that, based on the number of Alternate 4th Cards you have, that you had a starter (with basic lands) or 2 starters (without basic land) worth of product (allowing for a couple of cards to have been traded).  With that said, I’d guess you either have up to 3 rares, up to 9 uncommons, up to 26 commons and up to 22 basic lands, or that you have up to 6 rares, up to 18 uncommons, and up to 56 commons.  Please let me know, because I am interested to see if your numbers match a sealed starter’s worth of cards!

Again, thank you all for the excellent discussion!  I apologize for my long and numerous posts (the boards limit how long any one response can be) but I am doing my best to address all issues and field questions as they arise.  

- Ben

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by psrex » Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:32 am

Regarding finding a disproportionate number of rares to uncommons, commons and lands, that is quite easily explainable.  Rares are going to change hands due to trading much more than uncommons and commons, so all you had to do was buy a collection from someone that happened to trade for some rares from others with Alt. 4th in their collection.  Another explanation would be that someone bought a large amount of Alt. 4th and then simply given away the crap (uncommons, commons and land) and kept the rares.  I know that the latter situation has occured a large number of times in playgroups that I have been a part of where some members had a disproportionately large collection compared to other members.  I don't really see any reason to question Ben's statement that all Alt. 4th that leaked out came from starters.

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by hammr7 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:38 am

Ben,

Thanks for the official Wizards release, as I had not heard of it before.  It may contain seeds of what happened.  For me, a key phrase is "no magic cards ....were intentionally distributed".   My guess is that some cards were unintentionally distributed before the relationship strained, and it might have led to the unravelling of the relationship.  One possibility is that Wizards lost faith that USPCC could ever keep product from leaking out.  Another might have been a contact by an early recipient of one of these cards, warning Wizards that the card looked weird (maybe a warning of counterfeiting).  This might have convinced Wizards that the cards weren't close enough to be utilized. Additional cards could also have been distributed after Wizards asked out of the relationship.

My guess is that the confidential agreement absolved USPCC from blame in the release, and reimbursed Wizards for the cost of printing the cards.  It might also have described specifics of what to do with remaining inventory of cards, and all original artwork (including seperations, etc.).  Since it was confidential, it can't be made public unless both parties agree.

I friend of mine was a financial honcho with Hasbro when they took over Wizards.  He was involved in acquisitions and divestitures, and knew the Hasbro executives involved with the Wizards acquisition.  Its a long shot, since he is no longer with Hasbro, but I'll see if he can get me in touch with anyone who might be able to provide details (so long as Garfield didn't require a non-disclosure of such corporate secrets when he sold out).

I'll be interested in seeing the original production figures wen you post them.
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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by fvzappa » Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:11 pm

I think that there is a decent reason why these cards were never released. There are ways that are obvious to those of us who have paid much attention that allow you to cheat. A few of the differences have never really been discussed, but trust me, there is more to it than the slick surface.

If you take the time to really notice the differences, this knowledge (which I have elected to keep to myself for several reasons) could allow any dishonest player an advantage if they decide to do so.

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Re: StarCityGames.com Offers Alt 4th cards for Sal

Post by rick21n » Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:53 pm

To Rick21N:  In a 4th Edition Starter (both regular and alternate), there are 3 rares, 9 Uncommons, 26 Commons and 22 basic lands.  Could you post here the correspondence of rarity to the 50 cards you have?  I believe that, based on the number of Alternate 4th Cards you have, that you had a starter (with basic lands) or 2 starters (without basic land) worth of product (allowing for a couple of cards to have been traded).  With that said, I’d guess you either have up to 3 rares, up to 9 uncommons, up to 26 commons and up to 22 basic lands, or that you have up to 6 rares, up to 18 uncommons, and up to 56 commons.  Please let me know, because I am interested to see if your numbers match a sealed starter’s worth of cards!
- Ben

I Have Roughly
3 Rares
12 UNC
37 Commons

No Land as I never kept land for anything other then my 1 complete set.  So roughly one starters worth of product.  Still it should have come from Vermont (or a slight chance of Arizona)

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